Q$2.(7$ points$)$

In $1991$ Argentina pegged its peso to the U$.$S$.$ dollar at one peso per USD. In early $2001,$ confidence in the fixed exchange rate system eroded significantly. The $3-$month interest rates quoted by Argentine banks for peso deposit was $22\%$ and for USD deposit was $6\mathrm{.}4\%.*$

Suppose this interest rate differential reflected some probability that Argentina would devaluate the peso by $40\%$ three months from now. If uncovered interest rate parity condition is valid, what does this tell us about the probability that Argentina would devaluate the peso three months from now?

All interest rates are quoted as annual rate.