Q$\mathrm{.}2$

$($A$)$ Historical demand for a product is as under $(15$ Marks$)$ CO$1$ to CO$6$

Demand

January $12$

February $11$

March $15$

April $12$

May $16$

June $15$

a$.$ Using wt$.$ moving average with wts $(0\mathrm{.}6,0\mathrm{.}3$ and $0\mathrm{.}1)$ find the July forecast.

b$.$ Using simple three months moving average find July forecast

c$.$ Using simple exponential smoothing with alpha $=0\mathrm{.}2$ and June forecast of $13,$ find

July forecast. Make necessary assumptions if you wish.

d$.$ Using simple linear regression analysis, calculate the regression equation for the

preceding demand data.

e$.$ Using the regression equation in d$.,$ calculate the forecast for July.