Q$2.($Total $50$ points$)$

Suppose you $($or your group$)$ are the manager of a company trying to determine what

forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following

forecasts for each given forecasting method and then choose the best one to do the forecasts

for the future.

a$.$ Calculate the simple $3-$month moving average forecast for periods $4-6.(5$ points$)$

b$.$ Calculate the weighted $3-$month moving average using weights of $0\mathrm{.}50,0\mathrm{.}30,$ and $0\mathrm{.}20$

for periods $4-6.(5$ points$)$

c$.$ Calculate the exponential smoothing forecast for periods $2-6$ using an initial forecast

$(F_1)61,$ and an $$ of $0\mathrm{.}30.(10$ points$)$

d$.$ Calculate the double exponential smoothing forecast for periods $2-6$ using an initial

trend forecast $(T_1)$ of $1\mathrm{.}8,$ and initial exponential smoothing forecast $(S_1)$ of $60$ an $$ of

$0\mathrm{.}30$ and a $$ of $0\mathrm{.}30.(15$ points$)$

e$.$ Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation $($MAD$)$ for the forecasts made by each

technique in periods $4-6.$ Which forecasting method do you prefer? Using your

preferred technique forecast the demands for the following $2$ months $($months $7-8).(15$

points$)$