Q U E S T I O N 1 2 Suppose that the probability for an average person to have cancer is 0.005. Someone decided to take a medical test for cancer. The outcome of the test can either be positive (cancer) or negative (no cancer). The test is not perfect among people who have cancer, the test comes back negative 3% of the time. Among people who don't have cancer, the test comes back positive 2% of the time. For the following questions, you should assume that the test results are independent of each other conditioned on the true state ("cancer" or "no cancer"). The rst test returned positive, and the person decided to do a second test. The second test returned negative. What is your belief that this person has cancer? QUESTION 13 Suppose that this time the first test retumed negative, while the second test came out positive. What would your belief be that the person has cancer in this case