Q1 A product has a consistent year round demand. You are the planner and have been tasked with experimenting with some time series analysis. Using this previous weekly demand, calculate the following forecasts for each period possible. A) 4 Period Simple moving average B) 3 Period Weighted moving average using weights of 7.2.1, C) four period weighted moving average with weights of.4,.3.2,.1 and D) Exponential Smoothing forecast using an Alpha of.25. and a Week 1 forecast of 1900 units. Round all forecasts to whole numbers. SMA 4 Period WMA .7,.2.1 WMA .4,.3, 2, .1 EXP Sm.25 1900 Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Demand 1850 1760 1832 1895 1906 1852 1786 1790 1809 1925 1948 1960 7 8 9 10 11 12 Q2 For each of the forecasts and demand below, calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation, Mean Squared Error and Mean Absolute Percent Error. Use the ABS formula for Absolute Value. NOTE: Use formulas for each calculation. Use one decimal place for each calculation. MAD Week 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Error (e) Absolute Error MSE e12 MAPE Abs e/A 2 3 OWN Demand 650 689 705 648 638 710 Forecast 600 650 700 700 650 680 5 6 ANSWER 45 Q3 The Actual demand for snow shovels from a large Ontario Hardware Chain is shown below for 2020. Calculate the Seasonal Index for last year for each of the four seasons. Use the seasonal Index to calculate the demand for each of the seasons for this coming year (Table #2) based on a new ANNUAL demand of 6000 shovels. Use two decimal places for your seasonal factor. Round your final forecasts to whole numbers. Last Year 2020 Season Sold Average Seasonal Factor 1700 1480 Winter Spring Summer Fall 825 1115 Average Seasonal Factor Forecast Table 2 Season Winter Spring Summer Fall Sheet2