Q1. Given the data provided below, (a) draw an AON network, (b) find the critical path, and (c) use the techniques from the lecture (see Probability of on-time completion) to estimate the probability of completing the critical path in 44 days. [This is MM 8e Ch8 P28]

		Time (days)
Activity	Predecessor	a	m	b
1	-	6	10	14
2	1	0	1	2
3	1	16	20	30
4	2	3	5	7
5	4	2	3	4
6	3	7	10	13
7	4	1	2	3
8	7	0	2	4
9	3,7	2	2	2
10	9	2	3	4
11	8	0	1	2
12	10,11	1	2	3

Q2. Use Excel to do a Monte Carlo simulation for the project given in Q1. Use a triangular distribution to draw the activity times. (a) Show the min, max, and avg project completion time and a histogram of project completion times; (b) estimate the probability of finishing the project in 44 days, and compare with the answer from Q1; (c) now change the optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic times for activity #5 to 15, 25, and 35, respectively. Report the same statistics for this new problem. Why did they change? [This comes from MM 8e Ch8 P30]