Question: Q2 (30 pts.) You must decide which forecasting model should be used to predict the Demand based on this historical data: 1.) Compute the three-month

Q2 (30 pts.) You must decide which forecasting

Q2 (30 pts.) You must decide which forecasting model should be used to predict the Demand based on this historical data: 1.) Compute the three-month Moving Average forecasts for the periods 4/2015 4/2016. Month 2.) Calculate the Weighted Moving Average forecast values using the weights wl=0.50, w2=0.35, and w3=0.15 for the periods 4/2015 - 4/2016. Demand (1000 tons) 25.0 25.2 25.4 26.0 27.0 26.5 3.) Compute the Exponential Smoothing forecasts for the periods 2/2015 - 4/2016 using an initial forecast of 25.0 and an alpha of 0.60. 26.4 26.8 Jan-2015 Feb-2015 Mar-2015 Apr-2015 May-2015 Jun-2015 Jul-2015 Aug-2015 Sep-2015 Oct-2015 Nov-2015 Dec-2015 Jan-2016 Feb-2016 Mar-2016 Apr-2016 4.) Calculate the Exponential Smoothing with Trend (FIT) forecast values for the periods 2/2015 4/2016 using an initial exponential smoothing forecast of 25.0 (Ft) and Trend of 0.0 (Tt), a=0.60, and 8=0.50. 26.4 25.9 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.1 5.) Compute the Error Measures (MAD, MAPE, and TS) for the periods 4/2015 - 4/2016. Based on these Forecast Error Measures, which forecast model would you recommend? Which one is the second best forecast model? 6.) Without changing the initial value of 1.30, how can you improve the forecast model in 3) to yield a TS of better than +/- 1.50 for the time period 4/2015 4/2016? 7.) Plot the actual values and the four forecast models on one Line Chart. Make sure you chart includes proper axis labels, title and legend. 8.) Based on the plot and the three Error Measures, which forecast model should be utilized to forecast the future demand

Step by Step Solution

There are 3 Steps involved in it

1 Expert Approved Answer

Step: 1 Unlock blur-text-image

Question Has Been Solved by an Expert!

Get step-by-step solutions from verified subject matter experts

Step: 2 Unlock

Step: 3 Unlock

Students Have Also Explored These Related General Management Questions!

Can someone show what excel commands are used for this problem? You must decide which Forecasting Model should be used to predict the Demand based for this historical data. For full credit, all...

You must decide which Forecasting Model should be used to predict the Demand based for this historical data. For full credit, all calculations must be done using Excel formulas. Please use these...

Problem 3-17 (Algo) Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item for a nine-month period (January through September). Your supervisor wants to test two forecasting methods to see which method...

Historical demand for a product is as follows. Use this data for all questions below. % 1) Calculate a forecast for November based on a simple three-month moving average. 2) Calculate a forecast for...

Question 3) (35 points) Consider a transportation problem with the following supply, and cost Information. Supplie T 1 Customer Supply 2 3 Capacity 10 10 50 5 9 50 7 B 9 10 10 7 50 D 10 8 5 50 We...

- Must show all work to receive full credit. You can either type calculation steps into your file or scan your clear and legible hand-written solutions. Submit all responses in one file. Historical...

please help and show work Historical demand for a product is as follows. Use this data for all questions below. 1) Calculate a forecast for October based on a simple three-month moving average. %...

Historical demand for a product is as follows. Use this data for all questions below. 1) Calculate a forecast for October based on a simple three-month moving average. \% Grade 2) Calculate a...

Use data in worksheet named Q1-4 to answer questions 1 4. Assume the sample data was published in a business magazine. 1) Which of the following is true about the data? A. Class is qualitative and...

Historical demand for a product is as follows. Use this data for all questions below. Mar Jan 65.8 Cases (1000s) Feb 72.4 Jul Apr 77.8 68.6 May 83.3 Jun 91.5 Aug 91.6 Sep 88.2 80.1 1) Calculate a...

y-bar = 1.75 + 0.25x a. Compute the three sums of squares, SST, SSR, and SSE, using the defining formulas (page 164). b. Verify the regression identity, SST = SSR + SSE. c. Compute the coefficient of...

What is the quick ratio? Use the information below to answer questions Cash and Cash Equivalents Short-Term Investments Accounts Receivables Inventory Other Current Assets Total Current Assets...

Tax deductions are dollar - for - dollar reductions in taxable income. true of false

As the manager of Smith Construction, you need to make a decision on the number of homes to build in a new residential area where you are the only builder. Unfortunately, you must build the homes...