Q2: Time Series Analysis

Consider the following time series data.

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Value 20 22 21 18 19 23 15 19 21 23 22 24 23 25

a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?

b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 15.

c. Use =0.4 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 15.

d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using =0.4. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?