Question: Q(a). The yearly sales data split up into four quarters is as given below. Obtain the seasonal indices and forecast the sales for years 2006

Q(a). The yearly sales data split up into four quarters is as given below. Obtain the seasonal indices and forecast the sales for years 2006 and 2007 on a quarterly basis.

Year	Qtr 1	Qtr 2	Qtr 3	Qtr 4	Total
2000	28	37	33	24	122
2001	27	40	30	23	120
2002	31	36	33	30	130
2003	31	39	36	26	132
2004	29	38	32	24	123
2005	32	40	36	26	134

(b).The demand for a new carburettor stocked by a retail shop for ten weeks are shown in following table.

Week	Demand	Week	Demand
1	650	6	950
2	725	7	950
3	827	8	1000
4	850	9	1110
5	845	10	1195

Find a best fit exponential smoothing model to these data. Possible values of smoothing constant can be considered as 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, and 0.9. Justify your selection of smoothing constant. Also, report MSE, MAD and MAPE for best fit model.

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