QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

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Question (3): Based on what you have studied in decision analysis theory, solve the following problem: (10 marks) Fatima is considering the possibility of opening a small dress shop the Diplomatic area, a few blocks from the university. She has located a good place to attract students. Her options are to open a small shop, a medium-sized shop, or no shop at all. The market for a dress shop can be good average, or bad. The probabilities for these three possibilities are 0.2 for a good market, 0.5 for an average market, and 0.3 for a bad market. The net profit or loss for the medium-sized and small shops for the various market conditions are given in the following table. Alternatives Small shop State of Nature Good market ($) 75 000 Average market ($) 25 000 Bad market ($) 40 000 100 0000 35 000 60 000 Medium-sized shop No shop 0 0 0 From the table above solve the following questions: a) What is the maxi-max decision Optimistic)? (3 Mark) b) What is the maxi-min decision (pessimistic)? (3 Mark) c) Determine the EMV criterion if the decision-making environment is under risk. (4 marks)