QUARTER/YEAR ACTUAL NUMBER OF USERS IN MILLIONS FORECASTED DEMAND2-QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE ABSOLUTE FORECAST ERROR FORECASTED DEMAND3-QUARTER MOVING
Question:
QUARTER/YEAR | ACTUAL NUMBER OF USERS IN MILLIONS | FORECASTED DEMAND—2-QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE | ABSOLUTE FORECAST ERROR | FORECASTED DEMAND—3-QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE | ABSOLUTE FORECAST ERROR | EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING WITH SMOOTHING CONSTANT OF 0.2 | ABSOLUTE FORECAST ERROR | EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING WITH SMOOTHING CONSTANT OF 0.9 | ABSOLUTE FORECAST ERROR |
Q1/2010 | 30 | | | | | | | | |
Q2/2010 | 40 | | | | | | | | |
Q3/2010 | 49 | | | | | | | | |
Q4/2010 | 54 | | | | | | | | |
Q1/2011 | 68 | | | | | | | | |
Q2/2011 | 85 | | | | | | | | |
Q3/2011 | 101 | | | | | | | | |
Q4/2011 | 117 | | | | | | | | |
Q1/2012 | 1A. Forecast demand using the two-quarter moving average and the three-quarter moving average. 1B. Forecast demand using exponential smoothing, one with the smoothing constant of 0.2 and the other with a smoothing constant of 0.9. Note: Set the forecast for Q1/2010 equal to the demand level for Q1/2010. 1C. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of each forecasting method. Which forecasting method would you recommend Alvin Ortega use? Explain why. | | | | | |
Business Statistics
ISBN: 978-0321925831
3rd edition
Authors: Norean Sharpe, Richard Veaux, Paul Velleman