Question $1(24$ Points $+1$ point Academic Integrity statement$)$

"The Minnesota Twins would like some help in understanding interest in the team over time. You decide to utilize historical Google data to help the Twins determine what interest in the team is likely going to be this year. The included worksheets contains weely Google data for the Minnesota Twins. Utilizing this data, please aggregate the data into a single data set, with average monthly values over time instead of the weekly values. Using these average monthly values, build forecast models using the methodologies outlined below. For each of these methodologies please be sure to account for seasonality. Determine which forecasting methodology provides the $""$best$""$ forecast of the data. Please do all your calculations of Sheets $1-3$ and answer the following questions.

Please make sure to use a reference to your worksheets. Do Not enter values into the melon shaded cells."

Enter answers to the following questions in the corresponding answer boxes.

a$)(6$ Points$)$ Calculate the monthly seasonality factors of the data.

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

For the following questions, complete a $3$ period moving average model.

b$)(3$ Points$)$ Calculate the forecast value for Jan $2024.$

Jan $2024$ forecast

c$)(3$ Points$)$ Calculate the average absolute error $($MAD$)$ for the forecast time periods Jul $2013-$ Dec $2023.$

MAD

d$)(2$ Points$)$ Calculate the average absolute percent error $($MAPE$)$ for the forecast time periods Jul $2013-$ Dec $2023.$

MAPE

For the following questions, complete an exponential smoothing model.

Notes:

Use an exponential smoothing constant alpha $(\backslash$alpha $)$ of $0\mathrm{.}6$

Set the deseasonalized forecast for the first period equal to deseasonalized demand for that period.

e$)(3$ Points$)$ Calculate the forecast value for Jan $2024.$

Jan $2024$ forecast

f$)(3$ Points$)$ Calculate the average absolute error $($MAD$)$ Jul $2013-$ Dec $2023.$

MAD

g$)(2$ Points$)$ Calculate the average absolute percent error $($MAPE$)$ Jul $2013-$ Dec $2023.$

MAPE

h$)(2$ Points$)$ Which model would you recommend?