QUESTION 1 (25 MARKS FlyZone Aerodrome is a small general aviation airfield set in Karasburg, FiyZone have always strived to maintain good relationships with the local community by keeping them informed and involving local communities in activities whenever possible In recent years, the Aerodrome has been increasing in popularity and so the number of fights taking off from the airfield has been increasing. The management of the Aerodrome is aware that this increase in activity will increase noise for local residents, in particular in the summer months when flying is most popular FlyZone Aerodrome is seeking planning permission to build a new runway, which will be further away from the nearby village The local council planning department has asked FlyZone to supply forecast flight numbers for each quarter of the coming year to help it to make a decision as to whether the new runway is really needed due to increasing numbers of fights and whether the new run way will really improve the local community situation The following information is available regarding the number of flights taking off from FiyZone Aerodrome in the last three years. The figures for the final quarter 2020 are not yet known. Year Quarter Number of flights 2018 Jan to Mar 400 Apr to Jun 582 Julto Sep 681 Oct to Dec 557 2019 Jan to Mar 544 Apr to Jun 854 Julto Sep 1023 Oct to Dec 789 2020 Jan to Mar 742 Apr to Jun 1 468 Jul to Sep 1736 FlyZone have a mix of flights that use the Aerodrome including training flights, pleasure flights and private pilots using the airfield. There are constraints on fights such as hours of daylight and scarce resources such as instructor time. If the runway does not go ahead one solution to the potential issue with the local community is to limit the number of lights at peak times. The management at Flyzone are interested to know how they could allocate runway time to the different types of flight to establish the profit maximising mix of flights within the constraints applied Requirement: a) Explain the difference between the multiplicative and additive models of time series analysis and state in which circumstances each should be used (4 marks) b) Using the multiplicative model of time series analysis forecast the number of flights expected to take off from FlyZone Aerodrome each quarter of 2021 and the expected final figure for the final quarter of 2020 (12 marks) 2 (5 marks) c) Explain what method could be used by FlyZone to establish the profit maximising mix of flights (no calculations required) d) Draw up a balanced Scorecard to evaluate the performance of FlyZone Aerodrome. Give two measures for each perspective (4 marks) QUESTION 1 (25 MARKS FlyZone Aerodrome is a small general aviation airfield set in Karasburg, FiyZone have always strived to maintain good relationships with the local community by keeping them informed and involving local communities in activities whenever possible In recent years, the Aerodrome has been increasing in popularity and so the number of fights taking off from the airfield has been increasing. The management of the Aerodrome is aware that this increase in activity will increase noise for local residents, in particular in the summer months when flying is most popular FlyZone Aerodrome is seeking planning permission to build a new runway, which will be further away from the nearby village The local council planning department has asked FlyZone to supply forecast flight numbers for each quarter of the coming year to help it to make a decision as to whether the new runway is really needed due to increasing numbers of fights and whether the new run way will really improve the local community situation The following information is available regarding the number of flights taking off from FiyZone Aerodrome in the last three years. The figures for the final quarter 2020 are not yet known. Year Quarter Number of flights 2018 Jan to Mar 400 Apr to Jun 582 Julto Sep 681 Oct to Dec 557 2019 Jan to Mar 544 Apr to Jun 854 Julto Sep 1023 Oct to Dec 789 2020 Jan to Mar 742 Apr to Jun 1 468 Jul to Sep 1736 FlyZone have a mix of flights that use the Aerodrome including training flights, pleasure flights and private pilots using the airfield. There are constraints on fights such as hours of daylight and scarce resources such as instructor time. If the runway does not go ahead one solution to the potential issue with the local community is to limit the number of lights at peak times. The management at Flyzone are interested to know how they could allocate runway time to the different types of flight to establish the profit maximising mix of flights within the constraints applied Requirement: a) Explain the difference between the multiplicative and additive models of time series analysis and state in which circumstances each should be used (4 marks) b) Using the multiplicative model of time series analysis forecast the number of flights expected to take off from FlyZone Aerodrome each quarter of 2021 and the expected final figure for the final quarter of 2020 (12 marks) 2 (5 marks) c) Explain what method could be used by FlyZone to establish the profit maximising mix of flights (no calculations required) d) Draw up a balanced Scorecard to evaluate the performance of FlyZone Aerodrome. Give two measures for each perspective (4 marks)