Question $1)(30$ points$)$ Quarterly demand values for flowers at a wholesaler are as shown below.

Forecast quarterly demand for year $5$ using simple exponential smoothing with $=0\mathrm{.}40$ as well as Holt's

model with $=0\mathrm{.}40$ and $=0\mathrm{.}45.$ Which of the two methods do you prefer? Why? $($Hint: You need to

calculate forecasting accuracy measures to choose the best model$).$

Table $1-$ Quarterly Demand $($in Thousand dollars$)$