Question $1(6$ points$)$: Define a problem statement which reflects the challenge faced in this prediction problem $($Do not exceed $500$ words$)$

Question $2(6$ points$)$: Develop a $3-$period moving average forecasting model. Report the forecasts for year $6$ from months January through December inclusive. Discuss briefly these forecasts $($Discussion NOT to exceed $500$ words$)$

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Question $3(6$ points$)$: Compute for the model developed in Question $2,$ compute the error parameters MAD, MSE, MAPE, and TS$.$ Explain these error computations $($Explanation NOT to exceed $500$ words$)$

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Question $4(6$ points$)$: Develop a simple exponential smoothing forecasting model, assume, $=0\mathrm{.}2.$ Report the forecasts for year $6$ from months January through December inclusive. Discuss briefly these forecasts $($Discussion NOT to exceed $500$ words$)$

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Question $5(6$ points$)$: For the model developed in Question $4,$ compute the error parameters MAD, MSE, MAPE, and TS$.$

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Question $6(6$ points$)$: For the model developed in Question $4,$ using Excel Solver optimize the value of $$ with and objective to minimize MSE. Report your results provide a discussion how optimization improved the forecasting error $($Discussion NOT to exceed $500$ words$)$

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Question $7(6$ points$)$: Develop a Holt$$s model for forecasting, assume, $=0\mathrm{.}3,$ and $=0\mathrm{.}1.$ Report the forecasts for year $6$ from months January through December inclusive. Discuss briefly these forecasts $($Discussion NOT to exceed $500$ words$)$

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Question $8(6$ points$)$: For the model developed in Question $7,$ compute the error parameters MAD, MSE, MAPE, and TS$.$

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Question $9(6$ points$)$: For the model developed in Question $7,$ using Excel Solver optimize the values of $$ and $$ with an objective to minimize MAD. Report your results provide a Discussion how optimization improved the forecasting error $($Discussion NOT to exceed $500$ words$)$

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Question $10(6$ points$)$: Develop a Winter$$s model for forecasting, assume, $=0\mathrm{.}2,=0\mathrm{.}3,$ and $=0\mathrm{.}1.$ Report the forecasts for year $6$ from months January through December inclusive. Discuss briefly these forecasts $($Discussion NOT to exceed $500$ words$)$

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Question $11(6$ points$)$: For the model developed in Question $10,$ compute the error parameters MAD, MSE, MAPE, and TS$.$

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Question $12(6$ points$)$: For the model developed in Question $10,$ using Excel Solver optimize the values of $,,$ and $$ with an objective to minimize MAPE. Report your results provide a Discussion how optimization improved the forecasting error $($Discussion NOT to exceed $500$ words$)$

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Question $13(6$ points$)$: Discuss the model developed in Question $10$ is how different from model developed in Question $7,($Discussion NOT to exceed $500$ words$)$

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Question $14(22$ points$)$: Which model you will select and Why and how does the optimization improve the forecasting performance of the methods? $(1$ to $2-$page discussion recommend$)$