Question $1$: An analyst must decide between two different forecasting techniques for weekly sales of inline skates: a linear trend equation and the na$$ve approach. The linear trend equation is yt $=124+2$t$,$ and it was developed using data from periods $1$ through $10.$ Requirements: Based on data for periods $11$ through $19$ as shown below, show which of the forecasting technique has greater accuracy? a$)$ Perform demand forecast for periods $1219$ using the na$$ve method. b$)$ Perform demand forecast for periods $1119$ using the given linear trend equation. c$)$ Compute MAD $($mean absolute deviation$)$ and determine which forecast technique is better.

Period $($t$)$ Units Sold

$11147$

$12148$

$13151$

$14145$

$15155$

$16152$

$17155$

$18157$

$19160$

Question $2$: The manager of Snyder$$s Garden Center must make the annual purchasing plans for rakes, gloves, and other gardening items. One of the items the company stocks is FastGrow, a liquid fertilizer. The sales of this item are seasonal, with peaks in the spring, summer, and fall months. Quarter demand $($in cases$)$ for the past two years follows:

Quarter Year $1$ Year $2$

$14060$

$2350440$

$3290320$

$4210280$

Total $8901100$

If the expected sales for Fast$-$Grow are $1,150$ cases for year $3,$ use the multiplicative seasonal method to prepare a forecast for each quarter of the year.

Requirements: $($a$)$ Compute the seasonal relatives, and $($b$)$ determine the forecast for each quarter of year $3.$

Question $3$: Q$3-$Part A$.$ Define $$bullwhip effect$.(2$ marks$).$ What are the causes of bullwhip effect? Provide citations

Q$3-$Part B$.$ Please cite and explain any $3$ of Deming$$s $14$ points. What is Deming$$s opinion regarding inspection? Explain.

Question $4$: Aspen Plastics produces plastic bottles to customer order. The quality inspector randomly selects four bottles from the bottle machine and measures the outside diameter of the bottle neck, a critical quality dimension that determines whether the bottle cap will fit properly. The dimensions $($in inches$)$ from the last six samples are:

Bottles

Sample $1234$

$10\mathrm{.}5940\mathrm{.}6220\mathrm{.}5980\mathrm{.}590$

$20\mathrm{.}5870\mathrm{.}6110\mathrm{.}5970\mathrm{.}613$

$30\mathrm{.}5710\mathrm{.}5800\mathrm{.}5950\mathrm{.}602$

$40\mathrm{.}6100\mathrm{.}6150\mathrm{.}5850\mathrm{.}578$

$50\mathrm{.}5800\mathrm{.}6240\mathrm{.}6180\mathrm{.}614$

$60\mathrm{.}5850\mathrm{.}5930\mathrm{.}6070\mathrm{.}569$