Question $1.$ CoastCo Insurance is interested in developing a forecast of larceny thefts in the United States. Download the spreadsheet Download Download the spreadsheetfor the available data.

Plot this series in a time series plot and make a naive forecast for years $2$ through $19.$

Plot actual and forecast values of the series for the years $1$ through $19.($You will not have an actual value for year $19$ or a forecast value for year $1.)$

Calculate the RMSE and MAD for years $2$ through $18.$ On the basis of these measures and what you see in the plot, what do you think of your forecast? Explain.