Question 1: Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing method (20 pts) This question refers to the data of coffee consumption of US from 2015 to 2017. In the spreadsheet(see Sheet Que1 Exp Smoothing), please answer the following questions. Please use Exponential Smoothing method to forecast the first two month consumption of coffee in 2018, Jan and Feb . Show your answer in the corresponding spreadsheet. Notice that you should use Solver to determine the optimal value of Alpha, where the optimal Alpha minimizes the MSE. (10 pts) What is the optimal value of Alpha? (5 pts) What is the corresponding MSE using this method? (5 pts)Area: U.S. city average Item: Coffee, 100%, ground roast, all sizes, per lb. (453.6 gm) Years: 2015 to 2017 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor Link: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ap Year Month Time Period Coffee Consumption Exponential Smoothing Forecasts 2015 Jan 1 4.738 4.738 Alpha= 0.5 Feb 2 4.91 4.738 Mar 3 4.827 4.738 MSE= Apr 4 4.99 4.738 May 5 4.715 4.738 Jun 6 4.686 4.738 Jul 7 4.79 4.738 Aug 8 4.808 4.738 Sep 9 4.669 4.738 Oct 10 4.609 4.738 Nov 11 4.412 4.738 Dec 12 4.486 4.738 2016 Jan 13 4.498 4.738 Feb 14 4.447 4.738 Mar 15 4.405 4.738 Apr 16 4.428 4.738 May 17 4.443 4.738 Jun 18 4.481 4.738 Jul 19 4.428 4.738 Aug 20 4.316 4.738 Sep 21 4.372 4.738 Oct 22 4.309 4.738 Nov 23 4.306 4.738 Dec 24 4.281 4.738 2017 Jan 25 4.468 4.738 Feb 26 4.583 4.738 Mar 27 4.65 4.738 Apr 28 4.622 4.738 May 29 4.597 4.738 Jun 30 4.545 4.738 Jul 31 4.335 4.738 Aug 32 4.373 4.738 Sep 33 4.323 4.738 Oct 34 4.327 4.738 Nov 35 4.324 4.738 Dec 36 4.285 4.738 2018 Jan 37 Feb 38