QUESTION 1

If we are at "circle" split, we calculate the expected value of the outcome. Assume there are three possible outcomes at this point. What is the expected value of this outcome.

Outcome	Probability
73	0.3
100	0.5
166	0.2

QUESTION 2

At square nodes we make decisions about the best outcome.

If we are trying to MAXIMIZE the result, and we have four possible choices, what is the value of this outcome? (enter as number)

Choice	Value
A	36
B	79
C	57
D	58

QUESTION 3

Draw and calculate the optimal value for this decision tree.

Option A is worth 58.

Option B is risky. It is either worth 30 (35% chance), 51 (50% chance), or 94 (15% chance). Which option is better (assume higher value is better in this case)? Which option is better and what is the value? (enter value below, enter a or b on next question)

QUESTION 4

1. which option was best?

   A or B