Question 1 Mr. Brown is looking to invest some money in stock and has four possible...
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Question 1 Mr. Brown is looking to invest some money in stock and has four possible options. After consulting with his financial planner, he has the following estimated values of his investment based on the various market outcomes: SUA YSP HTC YHA Investment| Investment Investment| Investment Probability Probability Probability Probability Value Value Value $69,150 55% $65,820 50% $58,205 45% Value $57,250 65% $48,375 30% $49,320 25% $52,940 35% $50,250 30% $35,365 15% $46,765 25% $49,605 20% $45,250 5% To assist Mr. Brown in his decision, build a decision tree and answer the following questions: 1. Which stock should Mr. Brown invest in and what is the expected monetary value of that decision? 2. Which stock has the worst expected monetary value? 3. How sensitive the optimal decision strategy is to changes in probabilities associated with YSP? Specifically, if the probability for $65,820 could vary anywhere between 40% and 60%, how would that affect an outcome of the tree? (Hint: replace 50% with a parameter function, change the lowest 25% to a formula that ensures all options total to 100%) Question 1 Mr. Brown is looking to invest some money in stock and has four possible options. After consulting with his financial planner, he has the following estimated values of his investment based on the various market outcomes: SUA YSP HTC YHA Investment| Investment Investment| Investment Probability Probability Probability Probability Value Value Value $69,150 55% $65,820 50% $58,205 45% Value $57,250 65% $48,375 30% $49,320 25% $52,940 35% $50,250 30% $35,365 15% $46,765 25% $49,605 20% $45,250 5% To assist Mr. Brown in his decision, build a decision tree and answer the following questions: 1. Which stock should Mr. Brown invest in and what is the expected monetary value of that decision? 2. Which stock has the worst expected monetary value? 3. How sensitive the optimal decision strategy is to changes in probabilities associated with YSP? Specifically, if the probability for $65,820 could vary anywhere between 40% and 60%, how would that affect an outcome of the tree? (Hint: replace 50% with a parameter function, change the lowest 25% to a formula that ensures all options total to 100%)
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