Question 13. Given the historical demand found in the table below estimate the slope and intercept of the linear trend line. (10 Points)

Period	1	2	3	4	5	6
Demand	18	20	23	25	26	30

Question 14. Using the Forecasts and Actual values in the table below calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE. (15 Points)

Period	Actual	Forecast
1	83	76
2	96	94
3	97	89
4	108	112
5	79	89
6	87	84
7	103	109

Question 15. Using the table below, what is the break even point for each number of workers if the variable cost of each item is $1 and the revenue gained from each sale is $3? (5 Points)

Number of Workers	Monthly Fixed Costs	Range of Outputs
1	150	0 to 100
2	300	101 to 200
3	450	201 to 300

Question 16. Buy Me Toys has a new idea for the must have toy for kids this holiday season. However, they need to either build a new factory or setup a contract to have the toys produced by another company. If they build a big factory it will cost $5M (million), if they build a small factory it will cost $2M, if they setup a contract it will cost $1M. The probability of the toy being a big hit is .05, an average hit .7, and not a hit .25. Revenue for a big factory would be $20M with a big hit, $10M for average, and $4M for not a hit. Revenue for a small factory would be $10M with a big hit, $10M for average, and $4M for not a hit. Revenue for a production contract would be $4M with a big hit, $3M for average, and $2M for not a hit. Create a decision tree and solve it for the expected value taking into account the cost of the factory/contract. Based on the expected values which option should Buy Me Toys go with? (10 Points)