Question: Question 2 [20 marks] Probability Trees are closely related to decision trees, which are used in finance and other fields in business. You own a
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Question 2 [20 marks] Probability Trees are closely related to decision trees, which are used in finance and other fields in business. You own a handbag business. You need to invest in some product development for a new vegan handbag. The probability of it being a good year is 0.70. If it is a good year, you expect that a dividend will be declared with probability 0.90. However, if it is not a good year, then a dividend will occur with a probability of 0.20. a. Draw a tree diagram for this situation [6 marks] b. Will you have a chance to invest in your new handbag? Why? [8 marks] (Hint: Investments into product development and dividend pay outs are both made from sales profits.) C. Find the conditional probability that it is a good year, given that a dividend is issued. [6 marks] Question 3 [25 marks]
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