Question: QUESTION 2 As an assistant project manager specializing in risk management, you are consulted about whether to invest $140 million to build a new commercial

QUESTION 2 As an assistant project manager

QUESTION 2 As an assistant project manager specializing in risk management, you are consulted about whether to invest $140 million to build a new commercial building or to instead invest only $50 million to upgrade the existing building. The market demand for the building is uncertain. Based on a recent market study, there are 20%, 50%, and 30% probabilities of a strong, medium, and weak market demand, respectively, for the building. A strong demand leads to $250 million revenue with the new building but only $130 million for the upgraded building due to its limited capacity. A medium demand brings $180 million revenue with the new building but only $80 million for the upgraded building. Further, a weak demand only brings $60 million and $120 million revenue with the upgraded building and the new building, respectively. Use the decision tree analysis technique to help make the decision. , medium= , Weak Build a new commercial building(10 marks) The cost of possible three market demands: Strong= The revenue of possible three market demands: Strong medium= weak= The impact of changes: Strong= medium= weak= The probabilities of changes: Strong= medium= Expected Monetary Value (EMV) of each change: Strong= medium= weak EMV of build a new commercial building= , Weaks . Upgrade the existing building(10 marks) The cost of possible three market demands: Strong= , medium= , weak= The revenue of possible three market demands: Strong= , medium= , weak= The impact of changes: Strong= , medium= The probabilities of changes: Strong- medium= , weak Expected Monetary Value (EMV) of each change: Strong= medium= , weak= EMV of upgrade the existing building= , Weak= The final decision and rationale

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