Question 3. (40 marks) *This is a hypothetic question motivated by industry reality. Many of the names and organizations in the question are composed for examination purpose only. The COVID - 19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges to the aviation industry. Many airlines around the world have suffered significant loss due to the sharp decline in air travel. However, the situation is improving in selected markets such as air travel within EU and North America, where most travel and quarantine requirements are being removed. It was reported that certain airlines, such as Southwest and American Airlines in the United States, had problems recruiting sufficient number of employees to cope with the surge in travel demand. Mark Anderson is the Chairman of the Hong Kong Aviation Business Union, an organization representing the companies and employees in the local aviation sector. He is frustrated that there are still many travel restrictions imposed on the air travel in Hong Kong. For example, as of early April 2022 inbound travelers need to prepare documents related to (a) negative result proof of a PCR- based nucleic acid test for COVID-19, (b) confirmation of room reservation in a Designated Quarantine Hotel, and (c) documentary proof for completion of vaccination (if applicable). In most cases, travelers need to go through at least 7 days' quarantine which significantly increase the inconvenience and cost of air travel. Local airlines such as Cathay Pacific and Hong Kong Airlines continue to suffer financial losses. Some pilots are relocating to overseas, whereas many local aviation students still experience a lot of challenges in getting internships. Mark firmly believes that the Hong Kong government should immediately remove all the travel restrictions. He argues that given the very high number of COVID- 19 infection cases in the recent wave, it doesn't matter if there are additional imported cases. On the other hand, removing travel restrictions could help the local economy, especially sectors such as aviation, hotel and tourism, retailing, etc. For this purpose, he recruited Nancy Lee, an ISE3016 student to help prepare a formal recommendation to be submitted to the Hong Kong government. Nancy tries to apply the relevant knowledge learnt from ISE3016 in her report preparation. Although she hopes the aviation industry could recover soon, she is not entirely sure if removing all the travel restrictions is a good idea. Notably, she has the following observations and concerns: It is still not very common to remove all travel restrictions. Although most restrictions are removed for intra-EU air travel, certain restrictions remain for arrival passengers from outside of EU. In other markets such as Japan, as of early April there is a quota limit for inbound travelers, and in many cases business visa is required. This implies that many travelers cannot freely visit Japan for holiday, even though previously they did not need a visa at all (e.g. Canadian citizens usually do not need a visa to visit lanan) Since Hong Kong is an international hub. removing all travel restrictions would imply that Hong Kong adopts a more aggressive opening up policy than many EU countries. .She learnt from ISE3016 that the aviation industry usually needs to show that a proposed solution meets the ALARP criteria. If COVID-19 still imposes health risks, it is difficult to argue that removing all travel restrictions would satisfy the ALARP requirement. Mark believes that Nancy simply worries too much. He points out that Australia for example opens its border to international tourists as long as they had at least two vaccination shots. He sees Australia as a good example that Hong Kong should follow. He also argues that it is simple to show safety risk reduced to ALARP level by using the "Good Practice Arguments". That is, since the aviation industries in EU and North America have adopted the "good practices" of removing travel restriction, Hong Kong naturally reaches the ALARP requirement if it follows the international industry good practices. Nancy struggles with the report preparation. On the one hand, she feels that air travel and daily life need to go back to normal eventually. On the other hand, with thousands of lives lost in the most recent wave of outbreak, removing all travel restrictions at once may bring another disaster to the city. Indeed, COVID -19 variants are still being identified every few months. You are requested to provide your answers to the following questions: Mark Anderson argues that removing all travel restrictions would allow the local aviation industry to satisfy ALARP requirement using the "Good Practice Arguments". Provide your comments. (al). First indicate whether you agree or not to the argument, and (a2) explain why. Nancy believes that some formal analysis should be conducted. For example, she remembers that risk assessment is routinely required in the planning of safety related operations, and it is often necessary to develop and use certain key performance indicators (KPIs) based on actual data. Assume that commonly used data can be compiled at reasonable costs, (bl) outline the key contents and important analyses that should be carried out for making the decision of removing (some or all) travel restrictions. Try to be specific although you are not expected to actually do the analysis here. For example, if you suggest an analysis based on actual data, you should list the variables (data items) needed. and how these data analysis will be used. Explain what conclusions can be obtained from the analysis report you suggested. (b2) Even after the decision of removing (some/all) travel restrictions, continuous review / monitoring may be needed. Suggest the review or monitoring to be conducted, including the KPIs to be used, and what conclusions can be obtained and/or what actions are needed based on the KPIs you suggested