QUESTION $4$

$(20$ Marks$)$

Study the information provided below and answer the following questions.

INFORMATION

Radasys Digicommerce Inc. $($RDI$)$ is an e$-$commerce enterprise specialising in consumer electronics. Presently, the sales department at RDI utilises the Three$-$Quarter$-$Moving$-$Average Method $(3$QMAM$)$ to forecast demand for one of its flagship products, an Al$-$driven gadget. The newly appointed Chief Demand Planner at RDI, tasked with driving innovation and enhancing forecasting accuracy, suspects that regression modelling may offer a superior alternative. Consequently, he plans to conduct a comparative analysis to assess the relative forecasting accuracy between the $3$QMAM and regression analysis methodologies.

As an operations analyst at RDI, you have been assigned this task. The following sales data for the gadget is available:

$\backslash$table$[[$Year$,$Quarter,Sales $($units$)],[2020,$Q$1,1800],[,$Q$2,2100],[,$Q$3,1400],[,$Q$4,2500],[2021,$Q$1,1300],[,$Q$2,1500],[,$Q$3,1200],[,$Q$4,2000],[2022,$Q$1,1600],[,$Q$2,1800],[,$Q$3,1100],[,$Q$4,2200],[2023,$Q$1,2000],[,$Q$2,2300],[,$Q$3,1600],[,$Q$4,3000]]$

REQUIRED:

$4\mathrm{.}1.$ Using the $3$QMAM, calculate the gadget's quarterly sales forecasts for the period $2020$Q$4$ to $2024$Q$1.$

$(4$ marks$)$

$(8$ marks$)$

$4\mathrm{.}2.$ Conduct a simple regression analysis to determine the trend equation of the sales and use it to estimate the number of units of the gadget expected to be sold throughout the fiscal year $2024.$ Assume that Q$1$ of $2020$ is $1,$ Q$2$ of $2020$ is $2,$ etc. Present all details of the calculations.

$4\mathrm{.}3.$ Evaluate the relative forecasting accuracies of the $3$ QMAM and the regression analysis for the period from $2020$Q$4$ to $2023$Q$4$ using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error $($MAPE$)$ method.

$4\mathrm{.}4.$ Summarise the findings derived from the assessment conducted in $4\mathrm{.}3.$

$(4$ marks$)$