QUESTION $4$

$(20$ Marks$)$

Study the information provided below and answer the following questions.

INFORMATION

Radasys Digicommerce Inc. $($RDI$)$ is an e$-$commerce enterprise specialising in consumer electronics. Presently, the sales department at RDI utilises the Three$-$Quarter$-$Moving$-$Average Method $(3$QMAM$)$ to forecast demand for one of its flagship products, an AI$-$driven gadget. The newly appointed Chief Demand Planner at RDI, tasked with driving innovation and enhancing forecasting accuracy, suspects that regression modelling may offer a superior alternative. Consequently, he plans to conduct a comparative analysis to assess the relative forecasting accuracy between the $3$QMAM and regression analysis methodologies.

As an operations analyst at RDI, you have been assigned this task. The following sales data for the gadget is available:

$\backslash$begin$\{$tabular$\}\{|$l$|$c$|$l$|\}$

$\backslash$hline Year & Quarter & Sales $($units$)\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $\backslash (\backslash$mathbf$\{2020\}\backslash )$ & Q$1$ & $1800\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline & Q$2$ & $2100\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline & Q$3$ & $1400\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $2021$ & Q$4$ & $2500\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline & Q$1$ & $1300\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline & Q$2$ & $1500\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $\backslash (\backslash$mathbf$\{2022\}\backslash )$ & Q$3$ & $1200\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline & Q$4$ & $2000\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline & Q$1$ & $1600\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline & Q$2$ & $1800\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline & Q$3$ & $1100\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline & Q$4$ & $2200\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline & Q$1$ & $2000\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline & Q$2$ & $2300\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline & Q$3$ & $1600\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline & Q$4$ & $3000\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline

$\backslash$end$\{$tabular$\}$

REQUIRED:

$4\mathrm{.}1.$ Using the $3$QMAM, calculate the gadget's quarterly sales forecasts for the period $2020$Q$4$ to $2024$Q$1.$

$(4$ marks$)$

$4\mathrm{.}2.$ Conduct a simple regression analysis to determine the trend equation of the sales and use it to

$(8$ marks$)$

estimate the number of units of the gadget expected to be sold throughout the fiscal year $2024.$ Assume that Q$1$ of $2020$ is $1,$ Q$2$ of $2020$ is $2,$ etc. Present all details of the calculations.

$4\mathrm{.}3.$ Evaluate the relative forecasting accuracies of the $3$QMAM and the regression analysis for the period

$(4$ marks$)$

from $2020$Q$4$ to $2023$Q$4$ using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error $($MAPE$)$ method.

$4\mathrm{.}4.$ Summarise the findings derived from the assessment conducted in $4\mathrm{.}3.$

$(4$ marks$)$