Question 4

PROBLEMS 1. Calculate a 3-period simple moving average forecast for periods 48. 2. Calculate a 3 -period weighted moving average forecast for periods 48 using the weights 0.6,0.3, and 0.1 . 3. Calculate an exponential smoothing forecast for periods 28 using =0.3 and an initial forecast for period 1 of 22 . 4. Calculate by hand, a linear trend forecast for periods 4-7. 5. Calculate a linear regression forecast for periods 1-8 using Excel or some other spreadsheet application. What are the sample correlation coefficient and sample coefficient of determination? Do you think the forecast looks reliable? Why? 6. Compare the techniques in problems 1-3 here using the MAD, MAPE, RSFE, and TS for periods 4-7. Which forecast technique is the best? Why? 7. Monthly demand and two forecasts are shown below. Which forecast is better? Why? 8. Using whatever methods you choose, find the best forecasting technique for the following your