Question $5(8$ marks$)$

The following project has three independent paths as shown in the project network diagram. The

deadline to complete this project is $46$ days.

Activity

Optimistic

Time

$($days$)$

Most

Likely

Time

$($days$)$

Pessimistic

Time

$($days$)$

Expected

Time

$($days$)$

Variance

of

Activity

A $101628$

B $202842$

C $183042$

D $151515$

E $123$

F $424548$

a$)$ What is the probability that this project will be delayed?

Start

A B

End

E