QUESTION $5$

Using the information provided below, answer the following questions.

INFORMATION

The data in the table below shows the number of Next $-$ generation Rangers exported to over $100$ ?countries through Durban's roll $-$ on

roll $-$ off $($ RORO $)$ ?vehicle terminal during $2022$ ?and the first quarter of $2023.$

A demand planner wants to compare the relative performance of the weighted moving average method against the simple

exponential method in forecasting the volume of export of the next $-$ gen Ranger from the Silverton Assembly Plant.

Required:

$5\mathrm{.}1.$ ?Using the simple exponential smoothing method $($ SESM $),$ ?compute the forecasts for the February $2022$ ?to March $2023$ ?period.

Use a smoothing constant of $0\mathrm{.}2$ ?and assume a forecast of $7000$ ?units for January $2022.$

$5\mathrm{.}2.$ ?Compute the three $-$ month weighted moving average $(3$ MWMA $)$ ?forecasts for the April $2022$ ?to March $2023$ ?period, using weights

of $0\mathrm{.}2,0\mathrm{.}3,$ ?and $0,5($ oldest data to newest data, respectively $).$

$5\mathrm{.}3.$ ?Using the forecasts calculated for the April $2022$ ?to March $2023$ ?period, calculate the Mean Absolute Percentage Error $($ MAPE $)$

of the simple smoothing method and the MAPE of the three $-$ month weighted moving average method.

$5\mathrm{.}4.$ ?Which of the two methods should the demand planner use to forecast the volume of export of the next $-$ Gen Ranger. Explain

why?