Question (70 marks) Data selection: Select one of the world indices from yahoo finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/world-indices). The data analysis must provide an important economic/political/pandemic event (for example Asian financial crisis, subprime mortgage crisis, COVID19, political event, etc.). Your data analysis must include the duration before and after the event that you have selected. For the selected data set, answer the following questions: i. Describe the data set that you have selected. [20] ii. Construct a conditional mean and variance model for the return series under normality and student-t assumption. Use the ARMA-GARCH and ARMA- GJR-GARCH models for the conditional variance modelling. Comments on your models and choose the best model. [30] iii. Forecast the conditional return and variance for a 252-period future horizon. Determine the best forecast model based on MSE and MAE. Comments on your results. Use the actual data for return and conditional variance (use absolute return as the proxy). [20]