Question:

In Bayesian analysis, prior data is important as the source of the probability of an event before we add in whatever condition we are studying. But what do we know about prior information? Where might it come from?

Reference:

Bayesian Modeling of COVID-19 to Classify the Infection and Death Rates in a Specific Duration: The Case of Algerian Provinces

Summary of the article you selected and a description of the method that was used.

The study titled "Bayesian Modeling of COVID-19 to Classify the Infection and Death Rates in a Specific Duration: The Case of Algerian Provinces" aims to comprehend the spread, impact and mortality of COVID-19 across different provinces in Algeria using Bayesian modeling techniques as well asbuild a stable predictive model to predict the probability of infection and severity that can be adapted to other countries (Aouissi, 2022).The researchers gathered data on infection and death rates over a specific time frame from various provinces in Algeria as depicted in Figure 1 and Figure 2 below.

Figure 1

2000 + 1800 1600 - Daily number of confirmed cases 1400 1200 Cases 1000 800 600 400 200 0 15-11-2020 4-1-2021 23-2-2021 14-4-2021 3-6-2021 23-7-2021 11-9-2021 Period Figure 1 The number of COVD-19 cases in Algeria in the period between 1 January 2021 and 15 August 2021.60 + 50 40 - Mortality Daily deaths 30 20 10 0 15-11-2020 4-1-2021 23-2-2021 14-4-2021 3-6-2021 23-7-2021 11-9-2021 Period Figure 2 Mortality due to COVD-19 in Algeria in the period between 1 January 2021 and 15 August 2021