Read the Management Science in Action insert on page 663 in your textbook. Choose one or more of the following topics to guide your thoughts for this weeks reflection post:

• What are some of your key takeaways from the article? In other words, what is ACCO Brands Corporation doing right when it comes to forecasting demand? What are some of the tips they mention to help tweak forecasts for increased accuracy?

• Give an example of a product or service in your industry that is seasonal. What tools have you or your company used in the past to forecast demand? How might the concepts presented in this chapter improve your approach going forward?

• What topic (linear programming, project scheduling, decision analysis, or forecasting) has been most helpful in your study of management science? Which is most applicable to your career?

MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN ACTION FORECASTING DEMAND FOR A BROAD PRODUCT LINE OF OFFICE PRODUCTS* ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world's forecasts is critical throughout each step of the supply largest suppliers of branded office and consumer chain. Adding to this challenge is the risk of obsoles- products and print finishing solutions. The com- cence. We sell many dated items, such as planners pany's widely recognized brands include AT- and calendars, which have a natural, built-in obso- A-GLANCE*, Day-Timer*, Five Star*, GBC*, lescence. In addition, many of our products feature Hilroy*, Kensington*, Marbig*, Mead*, NOBO, designs that are fashion-conscious or contain pop Quartet*, Rexel, Swingline*, Tilibra*, Wilson culture images, and these products can also become Jones*, and many others. obsolete very quickly as tastes and popularity change. Because it produces and markets a wide array An overly optimistic forecast for these products can of products with a myriad of demand characteristics, be very costly, but an overly pessimistic forecast can ACCO Brands relies heavily on sales forecasts in result in lost sales potential and give our competitors planning its manufacturing, distribution, and market- an opportunity to take market share from us. ing activities. By viewing its relationship in terms of a supply chain, ACCO Brands and its customers (which nents, and cyclical patterns, Baker and Marks must In addition to looking at trends, seasonal compo- are generally retail chains) establish close collabora- tive relationships and consider each other to be valued have to adjust our forecasts for upcoming promotions contend with several other factors. Baker notes, "We partners. As a result , ACCO Brands' customers share by our customers. Marks agrees and adds: valuable information and data that serve as inputs into ACCO Brands' forecasting process. We also have to go beyond just forecasting consumer In her role as a forecasting manager for ACCO demand; we must consider the retailer's specific Brands, Vanessa Baker appreciates the importance of needs in our order forecasts, such as what type of this additional Information. We do separate forecasts display will be used and how many units of a prod- of demand for each major customer," said Baker, "and uct must be on display to satisfy their presentation we generally use twenty-four to thirty-six months requirements. Current inventory is another factorif of history to generate monthly forecasts twelve to a customer is carrying either too much or too little eighteen months into the future. While trends are inventory, that will affect their future orders, and we important, several of our major product lines, includ- need lo reflect that in our forecasts. Will the product ing school, planning and organizing, and decorative have a short life because it is tied lo a cultural fad? calendars, are heavily seasonal, and seasonal sales What are the retailer's marketing and markdown stra- make up the bulk of our annual volume. tegics? Our knowledge of the environments in which Daniel Marks, one of several account-level stra- our supply chain partners are competing helps us to tegic forecast managers for ACCO Brands, adds: forecast demand more accurately, and that reduces waste and makes our customers, as well as ACCO The supply chain process includes the total lead time Brands, far more profitable. from identifying opportunities to making or procur- ing the product to getting the product on the shelves *The authors are indebted to Vanessa Baker and to align with the forecasted demand; this can poten- Daniel Marks of ACCO Brands for providing input tially take several months, so the accuracy of our for this Management Science in Action. MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN ACTION FORECASTING DEMAND FOR A BROAD PRODUCT LINE OF OFFICE PRODUCTS* ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world's forecasts is critical throughout each step of the supply largest suppliers of branded office and consumer chain. Adding to this challenge is the risk of obsoles- products and print finishing solutions. The com- cence. We sell many dated items, such as planners pany's widely recognized brands include AT- and calendars, which have a natural, built-in obso- A-GLANCE*, Day-Timer*, Five Star*, GBC*, lescence. In addition, many of our products feature Hilroy*, Kensington*, Marbig*, Mead*, NOBO, designs that are fashion-conscious or contain pop Quartet*, Rexel, Swingline*, Tilibra*, Wilson culture images, and these products can also become Jones*, and many others. obsolete very quickly as tastes and popularity change. Because it produces and markets a wide array An overly optimistic forecast for these products can of products with a myriad of demand characteristics, be very costly, but an overly pessimistic forecast can ACCO Brands relies heavily on sales forecasts in result in lost sales potential and give our competitors planning its manufacturing, distribution, and market- an opportunity to take market share from us. ing activities. By viewing its relationship in terms of a supply chain, ACCO Brands and its customers (which nents, and cyclical patterns, Baker and Marks must In addition to looking at trends, seasonal compo- are generally retail chains) establish close collabora- tive relationships and consider each other to be valued have to adjust our forecasts for upcoming promotions contend with several other factors. Baker notes, "We partners. As a result , ACCO Brands' customers share by our customers. Marks agrees and adds: valuable information and data that serve as inputs into ACCO Brands' forecasting process. We also have to go beyond just forecasting consumer In her role as a forecasting manager for ACCO demand; we must consider the retailer's specific Brands, Vanessa Baker appreciates the importance of needs in our order forecasts, such as what type of this additional Information. We do separate forecasts display will be used and how many units of a prod- of demand for each major customer," said Baker, "and uct must be on display to satisfy their presentation we generally use twenty-four to thirty-six months requirements. Current inventory is another factorif of history to generate monthly forecasts twelve to a customer is carrying either too much or too little eighteen months into the future. While trends are inventory, that will affect their future orders, and we important, several of our major product lines, includ- need lo reflect that in our forecasts. Will the product ing school, planning and organizing, and decorative have a short life because it is tied lo a cultural fad? calendars, are heavily seasonal, and seasonal sales What are the retailer's marketing and markdown stra- make up the bulk of our annual volume. tegics? Our knowledge of the environments in which Daniel Marks, one of several account-level stra- our supply chain partners are competing helps us to tegic forecast managers for ACCO Brands, adds: forecast demand more accurately, and that reduces waste and makes our customers, as well as ACCO The supply chain process includes the total lead time Brands, far more profitable. from identifying opportunities to making or procur- ing the product to getting the product on the shelves *The authors are indebted to Vanessa Baker and to align with the forecasted demand; this can poten- Daniel Marks of ACCO Brands for providing input tially take several months, so the accuracy of our for this Management Science in Action