Question: (Requires StatTools) If the simple exponential smoothing method with smoothing constant 0.2 is applied to this time series, which of the following is the best

(Requires StatTools) If the simple exponential smoothing method with smoothing constant 0.2 is applied to this time series, which of the following is the best conclusion? Click here to reference the data needed to answer the question. a. The forecasts for the first six months of 2017 are all weighted averages of the last observed value and the last estimated level, using the smoothing constant for the weights. b. The MAPE, an average of 59 absolute percentage errors, indicates that the forecasts are off, on average, by about 13.9%. c. Probably because of the consistent downward trend, the forecasts, on average, are on the low side. d. All of these choices are true. Month Value Jan-12 8953 Feb-12 10817 Mar-12 11651 Apr-12 9962 May-12 9409 Jun-12 8927 Jul-12 7599 Aug-12 10751 Sep-12 8595 Oct-12 10126 Nov-12 10830 Dec-12 8453 Jan-13 9718 Feb-13 9374 Mar-13 8453 Apr-13 9349 May-13 11261 Jun-13 8323 Jul-13 7708 Aug-13 8338 Sep-13 7643 Oct-13 9008 Nov-13 8789 Dec-13 8535 Jan-14 7748 Feb-14 7824 Mar-14 8023 Apr-14 10654 May-14 8980 Jun-14 6124 Jul-14 5676 Aug-14 7726 Sep-14 8591 Oct-14 8033 Nov-14 8806 Dec-14 6297 Jan-15 9280 Feb-15 9005 Mar-15 9007 Apr-15 8511 May-15 6594 Jun-15 9058 Jul-15 8467 Aug-15 10004 Sep-15 7591 Oct-15 7309 Nov-15 6649 Dec-15 7577 Jan-16 8680 Feb-16 7660 Mar-16 6360 Apr-16 8787 May-16 7797 Jun-16 5960 Jul-16 10360 Aug-16 5874 Sep-16 4811 Oct

Month Value Jan-12 8953 Feb-12 10817 Mar-12 11651 Apr-12 9962 May-12 9409 Jun-12 8927 Jul-12 7599 Aug-12 10751 Sep-12 8595 Oct-12 10126 Nov-12 10830 Dec-12 8453 Jan-13 9718 Feb-13 9374 Mar-13 8453 Apr-13 9349 May-13 11261 Jun-13 8323 Jul-13 7708 Aug-13 8338 Sep-13 7643 Oct-13 9008 Nov-13 8789 Dec-13 8535 Jan-14 7748 Feb-14 7824 Mar-14 8023 Apr-14 10654 May-14 8980 Jun-14 6124 Jul-14 5676 Aug-14 7726 Sep-14 859 Oct-14 8033 Nov-14 8806 Dec-14 6297 Jan-15 9280 Feb-15 9005 Mar-15 9007 Apr-15 8511 May-15 6594 Jun-15 9058 Jul-15 8467 Aug-15 10004 Sep-15 7591 Oct-15 7309 Nov-15 6649 Dec-15 7577 Jan-16 8680 Feb-16 7660 Mar-16 6360 Apr-16 8787 May-16 7797 Jun-16 5960 Jul-16 10360 Aug-16 5874 Sep-16 4811 Oct-16 7487 Nov-16 7812 Dec-16 7924

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