Sales Data and Analysis $(20$ marks$)$:

Mr$.$ Zuliani has provided the previous three years of sales data:

Month # of Table Sold Month # of Table Sold Month # of Table Sold Month # of Table Sold

Oct. $201740$ Oct. $201855$ Oct. $201965$ Oct. $2020$

Nov. $201735$ Nov. $201850$ Nov. $201960$ Nov. $2020$

Dec. $201730$ Dec. $201845$ Dec. $201955$ Dec. $2020$

Jan. $201830$ Jan. $201950$ Jan. $202055$ Jan. $2021$

Feb. $201835$ Feb. $201945$ Feb. $202060$ Feb. $2021$

Mar. $201840$ Mar. $201945$ Mar. $202075$ Mar. $2021$

Apr. $201840$ Apr. $201960$ Apr. $202095$ Apr. $2021$

May $201850$ May $201965$ May $2020115$ May $2021$

Jun. $201860$ Jun. $201965$ Jun. $2020125$ Jun. $2021$

Jul. $201855$ Jul. $201980$ Jul. $2020125$ Jul. $2021$

Aug. $201860$ Aug. $201970$ Aug. $2020120$ Aug. $2021$

Sep. $201855$ Sep. $201970$ Sep. $2020115$ Sep. $2021$

Use the data provided to make a forecast for the next $12$ months. Show your work below and provide an explanation of your forecasts$/$methods in your summary and recommendations. Use your forecast to determine your required capacity for the next $12$ months.

Manufacturing Process Information $(20$ marks$)$:

Mr$.$ Zuliani has provided you a table that shows all of the tasks involved in manufacturing a table in his facility:

Task Task Time $($minutes$)$ Description Task That Must Precede

A $20$ Rough cut of table top and legs

B $15$ Sanding of table top A

C $25$ Sanding of legs A

D $20$ Detailing of table top B

E $30$ Detailing of legs C

F $25$ Attaching hardware to table top D

G $20$ Attaching hardware to legs E

H $10$ Attaching leg protectors to legs G

I $25$ Final assembly of table F$,$ H

J $60$ Applying stain to entire table I

$*$The facility operates $20$ days a month and for $7\mathrm{.}5$ hours a day.

Precedence Diagram:

Cycle Time Required to Meet Forecasted Demand:

# of Workstations$/$Employees Required and Tasks Assigned to Each:

Overall Predicted Utilization $($next $12$ months$)$:

Strategic Capacity Analysis $(20$ marks$)$:

Mr$.$ Zuliani is considering two different expansion options for $2022$ or doing nothing and keeping his current facility:

Option $1-$ Build a small facility

Option $2-$ Build a large facility

Option $3-$ Do not build a new facility

He is confident in some long$-$term market research he has already conducted that determined there are $3$ possible scenarios for the level of demand. He estimates that there is a $20\%$ chance that demand will be low, a $40\%$ chance that demand will be medium, and a $40\%$ chance that demand will be high.

The small facility would cost $$2$ million to build. If demand is low, he expects to receive an additional $$1\mathrm{.}5$ million in discounted revenues $($present value of future revenues$)$ with the new facility. If demand is medium, he expects an additional $$2\mathrm{.}5$ million. If demand is high, he expects an additional $$3$ million with the small facility.

The large facility would cost $$3$ million to build. If demand is low, he expects to receive an additional $$1\mathrm{.}5$ million in discounted revenues $($present value of future revenues$)$ with the new facility. If demand is medium, he expects an additional $$2\mathrm{.}5$ million. If demand is high, he expects an additional $$5$ million with the large facility.

Construct a decision tree to help Mr$.$ Zuliani make a decision and include your final recommendation in the report.

Summary and Recommendations $(40$ marks $-1$ page maximum$)$:

Zuliani Fine Tables Case Study $-$ Rubric

Marks Criteria

Forecast $20-$ Appropriate quantitative analysis

$-$ Qualitative factors considered

$-$ Accuracy

$-$ Risk management considerations

Precedence Diagram $20-$ Accurate precedence diagram

$-$ # of workstations$/$employees accurate based on forecasted demand

$-$ Utilization rate accurate

Decision Tree $20-$ Proper design $($branches$,$ symbols, layout$)$

$-$ Calculations correct

Overall Analysis and Recommendation $30-$ All recommendations clearly summarized

$-$ Rationale provided

$-$ Clearly explained and appropriate based on analysis

$-$ Qualitative factors considered

Quality of Written Report $10-$ Professional $($point$-$form ok$)$

$-$ Organized, clear, concise

$-$ Proper grammar and spelling

Total $100$