Question: Sales data for two years are as attached. Data are aggregated with two months of sales in each period. a) After plotting the data, we
Sales data for two years are as attached. Data are aggregated with two months of sales in each "period".
a) After plotting the data, we can observe that the most appropriate forecasting technique is [ A.) Moving Average B.) Linear Regression without Cyclic Decomposition C.) Linear Regression with Cyclic Decomposition D.) Exponential Smoothing ].
b) The overall average of demand across all provided periods is [ A.) 138.24 B.) 133.33 C.) 125.50 D.) 129.42 ] units.
c) For each period, select the multiplicative seasonal index factor from the dropdown list.
| Period | Seasonal Factor |
| Jan-Feb | [ A.) 0.80 B.) 0.95 C.) 1.36 D.) 0.87 E.) 0.83 F.) 1.19 ] |
| Mar-Apr | [ A.) 1.19 B.) 0.87 C.) 0.80 D.) 1.36 E.) 0.95 F.) 0.83 ] |
| May-Jun | [ A.) 1.36 B.) 0.87 C.) 0.80 D.) 0.95 E.) 0.83 F.) 1.19 ] |
| Jul-Aug | [ A.) 0.83 B.) 0.95 C.) 0.87 D.) 1.19 E.) 1.36 F.) 0.80 ] |
| Sep-Oct | [ A.) 0.83 B.) 0.80 C.) 0.87 D.) 0.95 E.) 1.19 F.) 1.36 ] |
| Nov-Dec | [ A.) 0.87 B.) 0.83 C.) 1.19 D.) 0.80 E.) 1.36 F.) 0.95 ] |
d) The regression line fitting the deseasonalized demand has an intercept of [ A.) 123 B.) 1.14 C.) 0.98 D.) 127 ] and a slope of [ A.) 1.13 B.) 127 C.) 0.98 D.) 123 ].
e) Using the results from the previous parts, what is the forecast including trend and seasonality (FITS) for each period of the next year?
| Period | FITS |
| Jan-Feb | [ A.) 164 B.) 112 C.) 118 D.) 133 E.) 189 F.) 114 ] |
| Mar-Apr | [ A.) 112 B.) 164 C.) 114 D.) 133 E.) 189 F.) 118 ] |
| May-Jun | [ A.) 112 B.) 118 C.) 114 D.) 133 E.) 164 F.) 189 ] |
| Jul-Aug | [ A.) 133 B.) 164 C.) 114 D.) 189 E.) 112 F.) 118 ] |
| Sep-Oct | [ A.) 189 B.) 118 C.) 114 D.) 112 E.) 164 F.) 133 ] |
| Nov-Dec | [ A.) 189 B.) 114 C.) 133 D.) 112 E.) 164 F.) 118 ] |
| Months | Sales |
| January-February | 109 |
| March-April | 104 |
| May-June | 150 |
| July-August | 170 |
| September-October | 120 |
| November-December | 100 |
| January-February | 115 |
| March-April | 112 |
| May-June | 159 |
| July-August | 182 |
| September-October | 126 |
| November-December | 106 |
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