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Proble$3-17($Algo$)$

Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item for a nine$-$month period $($January through September$).$ Your supervisor wants to test two forecasting methods to see which method was better over this period.

$\backslash$table$[[,],[$MONTH$,$ACTUAL$],[$January$,124],[$February$,125],[$March$,154],[$April$,174],[$May$,161],[$June$,180],[$July$,144],[$August$,138],[$September$,142]]$

b$.$ Use simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of $0\mathrm{.}40$ to estimate April through September, using the average of January through March as the initial forecast for April.

Note: Round your answers to $2$ decimal places.

$\backslash$table$[[$Month$,\backslash$table$[[$Exponential$],[$Smoothing$]]],[$April$,],[$May$,],[$June$,],[$July$,],[$August$,],[$September$,]]$

c$-1.$ Calculate MAD for each method.

Note: Round your answers to $2$ decimal places.

c$-1.$ Calculate MAD for each method.

Note: Round your answers to $2$ decimal places.

$\backslash$table$[[,$MAD$],[$Three$-$month moving average,$],[$Exponential smoothing,$]]$

c$-2.$ Use MAD to decide which method produced the better forecast over the six$-$month period.

Exponential smoothing.

Three$-$month moving average.