SCMT $3310$ Business Logistics Homework Problems $1$

You must show all of your work to receive full credit. Do not write only the answer.

$1)$ Over the past three months, the demand for a product has been $205,225,$ and $248.$ Calculate the three$-$month moving average forecast for month $4.$ If the actual demand in month $4$ is $221,$ calculate the forecast for month $5.$

$2)$ Monthly demand over the past $10$ months is given in what follows:

MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND FORECAST

$1100$

$290$

$398$

$4119$

$582$

$6109$

$787$

$891$

$9101$

$1092$

$11$

Using a three$-$month moving average, calculate the forecasts for months $4,5,6,7,8,9,10,$ and $11.$

$3)$ If the forecast for June was $115,$ and actual demand was $126,$ what would be the forecast for July if the smoothing constant $(\backslash$alpha $)$ is $0\mathrm{.}15?$ If July demand turns out to be $130,$ calculate forecast for August. Use exponential smoothing for your calculation.

$4)$ Given the following forecast and actual demand, calculate the mean absolute deviation $($MAD$).$

PERIOD FORECAST ACTUAL DEMAND ABSOLUTE DEVIATION $($ERROR$)$

$110075$

$210080$

$3100110$

$410090$

$510085$

TOTAL

Mean Absolute Deviation $=$