See Below the futures prices for SMP contracts ranging from May 2022 to March 2023. The...

 

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See Below the futures prices for SMP contracts ranging from May 2022 to March 2023. The market for SMP is in backwardation at the moment, because the supply in the short term is still limited. There are signals in the market of weakening demand, which brings downward pressure on the price at the longer end of the curve (see also market reports/pdf in the links below for more information). If you think that supply will remain tight - despite recent messages and that energy prices and other input costs for farmers will also continue to weigh on the supply of milk. You think that the effects of this will be very clear in the second half of the year (because the milk supply in Europe is typically lower) and because the demand and supply chains will have recovered from the Covid- problems in March 2022. Until the summer you expect that the prices will remain relatively stable, because the lower demand and supply balance out the market. Question What possibilities do you have as a trading company to try to make a margin based on the market view stated above? And what are the risks if your analysis was wrong? Instrument Days to expiry... Symbol Last traded FU Skimmed Milk Powder - May 2022 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Jun 2022 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Jul 2022 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Aug 2022 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Sep 2022 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Oct 2022 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Nov 2022 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Dec 2022 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Jan 2023 22 FASMK2 4.000,00 57 FASMM2 3.875,00 85 FASMN2 3.850,00 120 FASMQ2 3.850,00 148 FASMU2 3.825,00 176 FASMV2 3.825,00 211 FASMX2 3.800,00 232 FASMZ2 3.800,00 267 FASMF3 3.750,00 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Feb 2023 295 FASMG3 3.725,00 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Mar 2023 330 FASMH3 3.725,00 See Below the futures prices for SMP contracts ranging from May 2022 to March 2023. The market for SMP is in backwardation at the moment, because the supply in the short term is still limited. There are signals in the market of weakening demand, which brings downward pressure on the price at the longer end of the curve (see also market reports/pdf in the links below for more information). If you think that supply will remain tight - despite recent messages and that energy prices and other input costs for farmers will also continue to weigh on the supply of milk. You think that the effects of this will be very clear in the second half of the year (because the milk supply in Europe is typically lower) and because the demand and supply chains will have recovered from the Covid- problems in March 2022. Until the summer you expect that the prices will remain relatively stable, because the lower demand and supply balance out the market. Question What possibilities do you have as a trading company to try to make a margin based on the market view stated above? And what are the risks if your analysis was wrong? Instrument Days to expiry... Symbol Last traded FU Skimmed Milk Powder - May 2022 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Jun 2022 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Jul 2022 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Aug 2022 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Sep 2022 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Oct 2022 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Nov 2022 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Dec 2022 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Jan 2023 22 FASMK2 4.000,00 57 FASMM2 3.875,00 85 FASMN2 3.850,00 120 FASMQ2 3.850,00 148 FASMU2 3.825,00 176 FASMV2 3.825,00 211 FASMX2 3.800,00 232 FASMZ2 3.800,00 267 FASMF3 3.750,00 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Feb 2023 295 FASMG3 3.725,00 FU Skimmed Milk Powder - Mar 2023 330 FASMH3 3.725,00