Server Farm Inc. $($SFI$)$ needs to upgrade its server computers. Company management has identi$$ed the following two options: $(1)$ shift to a Windows $-$ based platform from its current$$Unix$-$ based platform, or $(2)$ stick with a Unix $-$ based platform. It is standard practice at SFI to use a triangular distribution to model uncertain costs.$$

Along these lines, the company estimates that if it migrates to Windows, the new server hard$-$ware could cost as little as $$200,000$ or as much as $$400,000.$ The technical group$$s best estimate is that the hardware costs will be $$250,000$ if the Window$$s option is pursued. Likewise, the company$$s best guess regarding the cost to upgrade and convert its software to Windows is $$600,000$ with a range of $$250,000$ to $$1,300,000.$ Finally, if the company converts to Windows, employee training costs are estimated to range between $$18,000$ and $$30,000,$ with$$the best guess being $$20,000.$ If the company sticks with$$Unix$,$ the new server hardware will most likely cost $$200,000,$ but could cost as little as $$160,000$ or as much as $$420,000.$ Software conversion and upgrade costs are expected to be $$600,000$ but could$$be as low as $$500,000$ and as high as $$1,050,000.$ Employee training costs should fall between $$16,000$ and $$35,000,$ with a best guess of $$20,000.$ Develop a model to simulate this situation using$$spread sheet simulation$$and answer the following questions$($use $10,000$ iterations$).$

What is the expected cost of each project?$$

What is the probability that each project$$s cost will exceed $$1,000,000?$

Which project would you consider to be the most risky?$$

Which project would you recommend SFI to undertake? Why