Question: Show all work step by step. Show Work In order to increase the responsiveness (volatility) of following forecast models, what can you do : a)

Show all work step by step. Show Work

  1. In order to increase the responsiveness (volatility) of following forecast models, what can you do:

a) Simple moving average method - describe in terms of averaging periods (number of data points to use):

b) Exponential Smoothing method describe in terms of alpha value (smoothing constant):

2. The tracking signal is defined as TS = SUM (Actual Forecast) / MAD. You want to monitor the quality of a forecasting model by calculating the tracking signal. The tracking signals are calculated as below. What does this mean?

Week

Tracking signal

1

1.1

2

2.1

3

4.5

4

3.8

5

5.2

6

6.4

7

6.7

3) Actual demand values for the last four months are as follows.

month

January

February

March

April

Demand (1,000s)

7

8

6

9

What is the forecast value (model generated value) for May using the exponential smoothing method with Alpha = 0.5? Start your forecast by assuming Fjanuary=Ajanuary

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