Question: Show all work step by step. Show Work In order to increase the responsiveness (volatility) of following forecast models, what can you do : a)
Show all work step by step. Show Work
- In order to increase the responsiveness (volatility) of following forecast models, what can you do:
a) Simple moving average method - describe in terms of averaging periods (number of data points to use):
b) Exponential Smoothing method describe in terms of alpha value (smoothing constant):
2. The tracking signal is defined as TS = SUM (Actual Forecast) / MAD. You want to monitor the quality of a forecasting model by calculating the tracking signal. The tracking signals are calculated as below. What does this mean?
| Week | Tracking signal |
| 1 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 |
| 4 | 3.8 |
| 5 | 5.2 |
| 6 | 6.4 |
| 7 | 6.7 |
3) Actual demand values for the last four months are as follows.
| month | January | February | March | April |
| Demand (1,000s) | 7 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
What is the forecast value (model generated value) for May using the exponential smoothing method with Alpha = 0.5? Start your forecast by assuming Fjanuary=Ajanuary
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