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MINI-CASE - Forecasting Air-Conditioned Golf Cart Demand You have been hired to the Planning team for the Alabama Golf Carts (AGC) company based in the new "Mecca of golf, Augusta, Alabama. One of their newer products is a line of luxury, air-conditioned Golf Carts. During your first meeting, you were handed some demand data to work with and are responsible for helping the company match demand to production capacity. Complete the tasks below. Month Forecast Actual January 2021 February 2021 March 2021 April 2021 May 2021 June 2021 July 2021 August 2021 September 2021 October 2021 November 2021 December 2021 3,500 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 5,000 2,900 3,200 3,700 4,500 5,400 6,000 6,200 5,400 4,600 4,000 4,000 5,200 Other possibly relevant information from the company: Product is produced two months in advance of sales. 1. The last month of actual demand (Dec 2021) was recently received. The V.P. of Sales and Marketing receives an end of the year $20K Bonus if his forecast accuracy for the year is within + or - 10%. Compute his forecast error for the year deriving a number for the MAD and the MAPE. Will the V.P. be receiving a Bonus this year? 2. Using the table above of 2021's monthly forecast and actuals, develop a forecast in January 2022. (a) Develop 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year moving averages to forecast demand in January 2022. (b) Forecast demand with a 3-year weighted moving average in which demand in the most recent year is given a weight of 3, 2 the prior year, and a weight of 1 the first year of the average. (c) Forecast demand by using an exponential smoothing constant of 0.4. (d) Which forecast method will you use to set January's monthly forecast and why? SCMN-4730 Module 4 Spring 2022 3. The monthly production capacity of the 1 shift operations at the production facility is 3,500 units and the company started the year with 2 months of inventory based on the production capacity (7,000 units). (a.) What will be the stock posture of Finished Goods be at the end of January if your forecast is correct? (b.) Does the plant have enough capacity to serve demand in January 2022? If not, what can it do to correct? (c.) If you run the plant on Saturdays in January (20% increase in production), will it be enough to erase the Backorders