Simulate the following decision situation for 20 weeks, and recommend the best decision.

A concessions manager at the Tech versus A&M football game must decide whether to have the vendors sell sun visors or umbrellas. There is a 30% chance of rain, a 15% chance of overcast skies, and a 55% chance of sunshine, according to the weather forecast in college junction, where the game is to be held. The manager estimates that the following profits will result from each decision, given each set of weather conditions:

Sun Visor or Umbrella?

P(x)	Cumulative	Sun Visor
0.35	0.3	-400
0.25	0.15	-200
0.4	0.55	1500
1

P(x)	Cumulative	Umbrella
0.35	0.3	2100
0.25	0.45	0
0.4	0.1	-800
1

Simulation
Week	RN	SunVisor ($)	RN	Umbrella ($)
1				$
2				($800.00)
3		($200.00)		($800.00)
4		($500.00)
5
6		($400.00)		$
7				($800.00)
8
9				($800.00)
10				($800.00)
11
12		($400.00)		($800.00)
13		($400.00)		($800.00)
14				($800.00)
15				($800.00)
16
17
18		($200.00)
19				($800.00)
20				*80.00)

Average

$1,155

($54.50)

Transcribed Image Text:

Decision Weather Conditions Rain Overcast Sunshine 0.35 0.25 0.40 Sun visors $-400 $-200 S1,500 Umbrellas 2,100 -800 Decision Weather Conditions Rain Overcast Sunshine 0.35 0.25 0.40 Sun visors $-400 $-200 S1,500 Umbrellas 2,100 -800

Answer rating: 100% (QA)

Px Cumulative Sun Visor Probabilities in all weather conditions 035 035 400 140 025 06 200 120 04 1 ... View the full answer