Question: Solve in a spreadsheet and use Excel functions, please. The sales and profits for a new product are uncertain. The marketing department has predicted that
Solve in a spreadsheet and use Excel functions, please.
The sales and profits for a new product are uncertain. The marketing department has predicted that sales might be *) as high as 10,000 units per year with a probability of 10%. *) The most likely value is 7000 units annually. *) The pessimistic value is estimated to be 5000 units annually with a probability of 20%.
Manufacturing and marketing together have estimated the net profit as follows: *) the most likely unit profit to be $32. *) The pessimistic unit profit of $24 has a probability of 0.3, and *) the optimistic unit profit of $38 has a probability of 0.2. The company is planning for a 5 year horizon and uses 14% as their interest rate.
a) Construct the joint probability function, assuming that profit value and sales amount are independent. b) Determine the PW of the profits for the pessimistic, most likely and optimistic scenarios. c) Compute the expected present worth for the profits of the new product, using the 3 scenarios in b only.
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