Question: SOLVE USING MARKOV ANALYSIS. PLEASE EXPLAIN THE STEPS FOR SOLVING. St. Pierre Salt Company - Separated salt is then fed to the salt dryers for

SOLVE USING MARKOV ANALYSIS. PLEASE EXPLAIN THE STEPS FOR SOLVING. St. Pierre Salt Company - Separated salt is then fed to the salt dryers for the removal of residual moisture. Two major firms supplied such centrifuges suitable for salt service-AKZ, a German firm, and Century-Morris (CM), a U.S. corporation. AKZ centrifuges are used widely in Europe and are considered the most reliable in the industry. These centrifuges had a stream factor of 96 percent. However, in the event of a breakdown, the German firm cannot supply technical service or replacement parts immediately. Officials of AKZ projected that there was only a 20 percent probability that their centrifuges could be restored to service within 48 hours following a breakdown. Because parts had to be flown from Germany, immediate return to service for the centrifuges was unlikely. Moreover, AKZ had not established a U.S. distributorship or service center. Its organizational philosophy was based on centralization in order to control quality. Hence, its major service centers were located in Ludwigshafen, West Germany. The CM centrifuges are used by most U.S. firms for salt separation. Corporate headquarters are located in Houston, Texas, and a service center is located in New Orleans, Louisiana. The CM centrifuge is not as reliable as the AKZ model; it can demonstrate only a 90 percent stream factor. The close proximity of the New Orleans service center, however, supports a projected 85 percent probability of return to service within 48 hours after a breakdown. Forty-eight hours was selected as the critical time by St. Pierre's engineers because of the in-process inventory normally maintained. This inventory permits the centrifuges to be down for 48 hours without curtailment of operations. A production curtailment would result in lost revenue for St. Pierre because his plant was "sold-out." St. Pierre and his consulting engineers visited plants using both the AKZ and CM centrifuges. Installation and operating costs for both machines were estimated to be equal. Both have the same rated capacity of 30 tons/hr. St. Pierre had a gut feeling to select the AKZ because it "looked better." However, he knew his decision had to be made on a more rational basis. 1. Which centrifuge would you select? Why?

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