Starting with your identified 2019 level of revenue, you expect that revenue will increase by 10% in
Question:
Starting with your identified 2019 level of revenue, you expect that revenue will increase by 10% in 2020. You anticipate annual revenue growth will slow by 1% per year to the long-run industry growth rate of 5% by 2025.
• You expect EBIT to be 12.5% of sales each year.
• You expect any increase in net working capital requirements each year to be 10% of any year-on-year annual increases in revenue.
• You expect capital expenditures to equal depreciation expenses in each year.
• Nike’s Tax rate is 20%.
• Nike’s weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is 9%.
1 - Suppose you believe Nike's initial revenue growth rate in 2020 will be between 8% and 14% (with growth slowing linearly to 5% by year 2025). What range of prices for Nike stock is consistent with these forecasts?
2 – Beginning again with your base case assumptions, suppose you believe Nike's initial EBIT margin (as a % of revenue) will be between 9% and 14% of revenue. What range of prices for Nike stock is consistent with these forecasts?
3 – Beginning again with your base case assumptions, you observe that similar companies in the apparel industry have WACCs ranging from 7.5% to 10%. What range of prices for Nike stock is consistent with these forecasts?
4 - What range of stock prices is consistent if you vary the estimates in cases 1 – 3 simultaneously? Put another way, what is the range of stock prices you might expect if the worst/best case scenarios occur from each of the previous three cases simultaneously.