Question: Step 1 : Calculate the expected value for each strategy. Expected Value Formula: EV = ( P 1 Payoff in state 1 ) + (

Step 1: Calculate the expected value for each strategy.
Expected Value Formula:
EV=(P1Payoffinstate1)+(P2Payoffinstate2)+(P3Payoffinstate3)\text{EV}=(P_1\times \text{Payoff in state 1})+(P_2\times \text{Payoff in state 2})+(P_3\times \text{Payoff in state 3})EV=(P1Payoffinstate1)+(P2Payoffinstate2)+(P3Payoffinstate3)
Strategy S1:
EVS1=(0.3050K)+(0.5030K)+(0.2070K)\text{EV}_{S1}=(0.30\times -50K)+(0.50\times 30K)+(0.20\times 70K)EVS1=(0.3050K)+(0.5030K)+(0.2070K)
Strategy S2:
EVS2=(0.3080K)+(0.5020K)+(0.2040K)\text{EV}_{S2}=(0.30\times -80K)+(0.50\times 20K)+(0.20\times 40K)EVS2=(0.3080K)+(0.5020K)+(0.2040K)
Strategy S3:
EVS3=(0.3070K)+(0.500)+(0.2050K)\text{EV}_{S3}=(0.30\times -70K)+(0.50\times 0)+(0.20\times 50K)EVS3=(0.3070K)+(0.500)+(0.2050K)
Strategy S4:
EVS4=(0.30200K)+(0.5050K)+(0.20150K)\text{EV}_{S4}=(0.30\times -200K)+(0.50\times -50K)+(0.20\times 150K)EVS4=(0.30200K)+(0.5050K)+(0.20150K)
Strategy S5:
EVS5=(0.300)+(0.500)+(0.200)=0\text{EV}_{S5}=(0.30\times 0)+(0.50\times 0)+(0.20\times 0)=0EVS5=(0.300)+(0.500)+(0.200)=0
Let's compute these expected values to identify the best strategy.
Expected Values for Each Strategy:
S1: $14,000
S2: $-6,000
S3: $-11,000
S4: $-55,000
S5: $0
Analysis:
Best Strategy (Expected Value Approach): The strategy with the highest expected value is S1 with an expected profit of $14,000. Therefore, S1 should be chosen if the goal is to maximize expected profit.
Go-for-Broke Attitude: A go-for-broke manager would choose the strategy with the highest potential payoff regardless of risk. The highest potential payoff is S4(Total Success = $150,000).
Pessimistic Approach (Without S5): A pessimist would consider the worst-case scenario for each strategy and choose the one with the least negative impact:
Worst outcomes:
S1: $-50KS2: $-80KS3: $-70KS4: $-200K
The least negative worst-case outcome is S1 with a potential loss of $-50K.
Pessimistic Approach (With S5): If S5 were an option, a pessimist would choose it, as it guarantees a payoff of $0 with no risk of loss.
Final Answers:
Part a: Strategy S1 should be taken based on expected value.
Part b: The go-for-broke choice would be S4.
Part c: A pessimist without S5 would choose S1.
Part d: With S5 available, a pessimist would choose S5.

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