Question: Step 1 : Calculate the expected value for each strategy. Expected Value Formula: EV = ( P 1 Payoff in state 1 ) + (
Step : Calculate the expected value for each strategy.
Expected Value Formula:
EVPPayoffinstatePPayoffinstatePPayoffinstatetextEVPtimes textPayoff in state Ptimes textPayoff in state Ptimes textPayoff in state EVPPayoffinstatePPayoffinstatePPayoffinstate
Strategy S:
EVSKKKtextEVStimes Ktimes Ktimes KEVSKKK
Strategy S:
EVSKKKtextEVStimes Ktimes Ktimes KEVSKKK
Strategy S:
EVSKKtextEVStimes Ktimes times KEVSKK
Strategy S:
EVSKKKtextEVStimes Ktimes Ktimes KEVSKKK
Strategy S:
EVStextEVStimes times times EVS
Let's compute these expected values to identify the best strategy.
Expected Values for Each Strategy:
S: $
S: $
S: $
S: $
S: $
Analysis:
Best Strategy Expected Value Approach: The strategy with the highest expected value is S with an expected profit of $ Therefore, S should be chosen if the goal is to maximize expected profit.
GoforBroke Attitude: A goforbroke manager would choose the strategy with the highest potential payoff regardless of risk. The highest potential payoff is STotal Success $
Pessimistic Approach Without S: A pessimist would consider the worstcase scenario for each strategy and choose the one with the least negative impact:
Worst outcomes:
S: $KS: $KS: $KS: $K
The least negative worstcase outcome is S with a potential loss of $K
Pessimistic Approach With S: If S were an option, a pessimist would choose it as it guarantees a payoff of $ with no risk of loss.
Final Answers:
Part a: Strategy S should be taken based on expected value.
Part b: The goforbroke choice would be S
Part c: A pessimist without S would choose S
Part d: With S available, a pessimist would choose S
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