student id : 25

Forecasting Class Assignment 1. Submit your hand written answers on Canvas. 2. You must write your name and student number on your answer sheet. The answer sheets with no name will get zero. Abu Dhabi office supplies (ADOS) sells and delivers office supplies to various companies. The manager of ADOS wants to be able to forecast the number of orders that will occur next month and collected the following data on demand during the past 10 months. Month Jan Feb March April May June July August September October November Orders 100+10*the last two digits of your student number 95+10*the last two digits of your student number 120+10 the last two digits of your student number 85+10"the last two digits of your student number 105+10 the last two digits of your student number 70+10"the last two digits of your student number 95+10"the last two digits of your student number 120+10*the last two digits of your student number 110+10*the last two digits of your student number 95+10*the last two digits of your student number A) Fill the demand table using the last two digits of your student number. For example, if your student number is EMBA 200002, last two digit is 02 and the demand for Jan is Djan=100+10*02=120 B) Create a forecast for August September, October and November using 3 months MA. c) Create a forecast for August September October and November using exponential smoothing with alpha=0.4. Use Fan Den D) Calculate the forecast errors, MAD, MAPE by these methods ( 3 months MA and exponential smoothing with alpha=0.4). Determine which method is more accurate. FORMULAE 1 year = 365 days; 1 year = 12 months; 1 month=4 weeks; 1 month=30 days; 1 week=7 days Forcasting Formulas Moving Average: Exponential Smoothing: BIAS = 27.264/ D,+D+-+D, Fc+1 = Fe+1 = aD. + (1 - a) "- \./ MAD = 71 Verlos 21 MAPE = 100 71 Answer: 3 Months Moving Average Absolute Error Percent Errors Month Forecasts Orders Error 3 m 3 m 3 m 3 m Jan Feb March April May June July August September October BIAS average of errors MAPE= MAD=average Average of of absolute percent errors errors November BIAS MAD MAPE Exponential Smoothing with alpha=0.5 Month Alpha=0.4 Alpha=0.4 Orders Alpha=0.4 Alpha=0.4 Forecasts Error Absolute Error Percent Errors Jan Feb March April May June July August September October MAD=average BIAS= average of of absolute errors errors MAPE= Average of percent errors November BIAS MAD MAPE