Student ID is 22. please take this digit in calculation

Note: Student ID is 22. please take this digit in calculation.

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Student ID is 22. please take this digit in calculation

Note: Student ID is 22. please take this digit in calculation

Forecasting Class Assignment Submit your hand written answers on Canvas. Typed answers will get zero mark You need to write your name and student number on each sheet. Unnamed submission will get zero mark. Abu Dhabi office supplies (ADOS) sells and delivers office supplies to various companies. The manager of ADOS wants to be able to forecast the number of orders that will occur next month and collected the following data on demand during the past 10 months. Month Jan Feb March April May June July August September October November Orders 100+20 the last two digits your student number 95+20*the last two digits of your student number 112+20*the last two digits of your student number 85+20"the last two digits of your student number 105+20*the last two digits of your student number 90+20*the last two digits of your student number 105+20*the last two digits of your student number 115+20*the last two digits of your student number 110+20"the last two digits of your student number 105+20 the last two digits your student number A) Fill the demand table using the last two digits of your student number. For example, if your student number is EMBA 200002, last two digit is 02 and the demand for Jan is Djan=100+20*02=140. B) Create a forecast for September, October and November using 4 months MA. C) Using a four-month weighted average with the most recent month weighted 0.50, the next most recent month weighted 0.20, the third month weighted 0.20, and fourth month weighted 0.10, forecast the gasoline demand for months September, October and November. D) Create a forecast for September, October and November using exponential smoothing with alpha=0.2. Use Faugust = Dauget E) Calculate the forecast errors and MAD by these methods ( 4 months MA, weighted moving average and exponential smoothing with alpha=0.2). Determine which method is more accurate. FORMULAE 1 year = 365 days; 1 year = 12 months; 1 month=4 weeks; 1 month=30 days; 1 week=7 days Forcasting Formulas Moving Average: Exponential Smoothing: BIAS = 22=1E// Ft+1 = D+D2+...+D Ft+1 = aD, + (1 - a)F: MAD = EF=11Exl TE Answer: B) Moving Average 4 Month Orders Forecasts Error Absolute Error Jan Feb March April May June July August September October BIAS= average of errors MAD-average of absolute errors November = BIAS MAD C) Four month weighted average with weights (0.5, 0.2, 0.2, 01) Month Orders Forecasts Error Absolute Error Jan Feb March April May June July August September October BIAS= average of errors MAD=average of absolute errors November = BIAS MAD D) Exponential smoothing with a = 0.20. Month Orders Forecasts Error Absolute Error Jan Feb March April May June July August September October BIAS= average of errors MAD=average of absolute errors November = BIAS MAD E) MAD(B) = MAD(C)= MAD(D)=