Subject: Operations and Supply Chain Management

Topic: Simulation and Project Management

Objective: To demonstrate your skill in transferring a solution technique to a new business scenario

Question: (one - two page limit)

Consider a real estate development firm that builds single-family homes. The steps involved in the construction of a home are well defined, and the project network has been developed. Realistically, each of the tasks of the different trades involved (e.g. carpenters, masons, electricians, etc.) are variables. The challenge to the company is to evaluate the chance that a particular house will be completed in three weeks. This seems to fit a standard PERT analysis.

However, you have strong proof that the durations of the tasks are not 3-estimate (or beta) distributed. (For example, you know the carpenters' work is constant. It's always 4 days. Other trades have time estimates that involve only two alternative durations.) Hence, the basic underlying assumptions necessary to use PERT are violated. Project Management techniques (PERT) cannot be used.

As an alternative, it is suggested that this question can be answered using simulation.

Your assignment here: Describe the design of the simulation and describe any calculations necessary to answer the question: "What is the probability that a house will be completed in 3 weeks or less".

You can use Monte Carlo simulation in excel. a.) Describe the simulation design. b.) Discuss the procedure fully as to how to calculate the desired probability. Include every step needed to calculate the desired probability. The answers should be written in Word and provide your Excel output as a supported document.