Suppose each of five companies is possibly going to submit a sealed bid for a government contract.
Question:
Suppose each of five companies is possibly going to submit a sealed bid for a government contract. Each of these companies will either submit a bid, with a probability 0.7, or will not, with a probability 0.3. Any submitted bid has a triangular distribution with parameters min=30, most likely= 40, and max=60. (These values are in $ thousands.) The bidding actions of the companies are probabilistically independent. After running a simulation with at least 5,000 replications, what is the most realistic conclusion about the highest bid?
a. The probability that there is a high bid of at least $55,000 is around 0.21.
b. The probability that there is a high bid of at least $50,000 is around 0.46.
c. The probability that no companies bid is around 0.03.
d. The probability that there is no bid greater than $45,000 is around 0.32.